Investment review for the 27th week of 2022

Stocks

• ETFs SPY: +1.95% (+7.43$).

In the week in question, the markets were strongly influenced by the latest report on employment in the US non-farm payrolls or Nonfarm Payrolls.

The increase in the number of employees significantly exceeded the forecast (372K against 268K in the forecast); this served as a signal for the strengthening of the US dollar and, at the same time, instilled some optimism in the stock market investors.

On June 13, it published new data on inflation – it amounted to 8.8%, that is, growth should continue. If inflation still turns out to be lower, this will be a good signal for the stock market, and if not, we will continue to fall further.

Also, starting this week is the Q2 2022 reporting season. It is the first report that entirely considers the impact of Russian aggression in Ukraine (exit of US companies, high energy prices, etc.) and the start of the Fed’s policy of raising interest rates. So first to go (JP Morgan, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley) and some big companies: Pepsi and United Health.

Cryptocurrencies

• ADA Cardano: -2.96% (-0.48$);
• BNB Binance Coin: +3.82% (+0.81$);
• BTC Bitcoin: +3.80% (+2.46$);
• DOT Polkadot: -2.61% (-0.21$);
• ETH Ethereum: +3.52% (+2.10$);
• LUNA Terra (v2): -6.66% (-0.13$);
• NEAR Protocol: -0.44% (+0.03$);
• SOL Solana: +2.44% (+0.37$).

Bitcoin is back above $20,000. Naturally, we want to be optimistic and say that cryptocurrencies have rebounded from the bottom – but let’s not talk about it ahead. Every week there is information about the bankruptcy of crypto-related companies, and the most prominent players in the industry are spending billions on saving the drowning. However, given the macroeconomic background and the possibility of a further fall in the stock market, one feels that this money may not save the situation.

In our opinion, the situation in the crypto market will again become quite promising closer to 2024. It is because the case in the global economy should have stabilized by then, plus this is the year of the next halving bitcoin – a historically pleasant event for crypto investors.

We do not plan to sell anything, as we plan to invest in crypto projects for several years. However, when we thought about it again, we realized that we needed to sell LUNA; there is no desire to keep this coin for a long time – there is no particular faith in the project’s success.

Precious metals

• Gold (PAX Gold): -3.80% (-12.63$).

Unfortunately, the strengthening of the US dollar immediately led to a fall in the price of gold. Nothing is unexpected here; in a period of rising interest rates, commodities and precious metals do not grow well. The good news is that indicators on the daily chart of gold show oversold; it will be challenging to fall further due to increased demand from investors.

Deposits

• UAH (Monobank 9.22%): +0.00% (+0.00$);
• BUSD (Binance USD 10-13%): +0.21% (+0.61$).

Week 04.07-10.07.2022 (No.27)

Name of the asset (group)	For 2022, %	04.07.22 USD	Portfolio share, %	Week, USD 09.07.22	USD profit	Profit, %
INVEST. PORTFOLIO USD	-20.49	1978.25	100.00	1976.84	0.37	0.02
MONEY IN RESERVE, USD					total:
Shares ETFs SPY	-17.93	381.24	19.27	3 88.67	7.43	1.95
Deposit BUSD Binance USD	5.16	285.24	14.42	285.85	0.61	0.2 1
Deposite  Monobank UAH	-2.22	785.36	3 9.70	7 85.36	0.00	0.00
Precious metal PAXG Pax Gold	-5.23	332.32	16.80	319.69	-12.63	-3.80
Crypto AD Cardano	-63.05	16.36	0.83	15.88	-0.48	-2.96
Cryptobnb  BinanceCoins	-54.15	21.11	1.07	21.92	0.81	3.82
Crypto BTC Bitcoin	-51.36	64.65	3.27	67.10	2.46	3.90
CryptoDOT  Polkadot	-73.70	7.92	0.40	7.71	-0.21	-2.61
Crypto ETH Ethereum	-66.46	59.81	3.02	61.91	2.10	3.52
Crypto LUNA Terra v2	-69.73	1.91	0.10	1.78	-0.13	-6.66
Crypto NEAR Protocol	-64.67	7.03	0.36	7.07	0.03	0.44
Crypto SOL Solana	-77.38	15.30	0.77	15.68	0 .37	2.44

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Bitcoin Reserve Risk Indicator Crashed

The key indicator for the Bitcoin code network has collapsed to its lowest point ever.

One of the most important technical indicators for the Bitcoin network has crashed to its lowest point. The indicator follows the market cycles, tracking the risk/reward ratio relative to the confidence of long-term holders.

It is worth noting that this indicator did not fall so low even during the bearish cycle of 2018. However, the cryptanalyst Murad drew attention to the indicator’s fall and said, “either this indicator does not work, or we are in the lower zone of the high timeframe”.

Other indicators are also falling. Among them is the long-term profitability ratio of production ( SOPR ); its fall has not been so profound for several years. At the moment, long-term holders are selling at a loss, which means the market capitulation continues.

Why the Bitcoin Reserve Risk Indicator is Falling

During the last few weeks, Bitcoin prices have been hovering between $18,000 and $22,000. If the BTC rate does not start to grow shorter, there is a high probability of its drawdown to $15,000. The reserve risk index is influenced by the generally unfavourable market situation, especially in the US.

Important reports will be published this week and next on how things are going in the US economy, and the forecasts are very pessimistic. If inflation remains high and the Fed rates rise again sharply, investors will move into low-risk assets.

And Bitcoin is not one of them. As a result, the US could enter a technical recession next year. It will lead to a decrease in the shares of technology giants and a decrease in interest in cryptocurrencies.

What’s Next for Bitcoin

So far, no fundamental factors would indicate a positive development of events in the crypto market. The price of Bitcoin is not showing an uptrend. Crypto winter still dominates, and the thaw has not yet arrived.

However, this situation benefits whales by buying up assets at a low price.

As a result, they have sufficient resources to survive a long period of recession. But, unlike them, most traders and investors do not have such reserves. So, for now, they only record losses.

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